Retirement Replay
Run your retirement through every market Canada has ever had.
One household, retired over and over: into the 1958 rebound, the 1966 grind, the 1981 rate shock, the 2008 crash. Each line on the chart is the same plan meeting a different stretch of history, and the verdict is how long the money lasts.
Free, no account. The simulation runs in your browser and your numbers never leave the device.
I'm , we spend $ a year after tax, we've saved $, , in .
Averaged across histories, the chance of being alive to see the money run out: 11% · strands fade past the your median lifespan
history 1956-02 to 2026-04 · 69 retirement starts · ON tax rules 2026 · after-tax spending, today's dollars · CPP and OAS are CPI-indexed, so real amounts hold
What the record shows
searching for the highest sustainable spending…
Ending balances, the 35 retirements history has finished
The other 34 started too recently for a full 35-year run, so they sit out the percentiles.
Median over a completed retirement: spending funded $1,925,000 · income tax and clawback paid $215,751 (the column no pre-tax tool can show)
Spending over the retirement (today's dollars)
Constant-dollar policy: spending holds flat at $55,000 in every history. Pick a variable policy in the rail to see the band.
| Spending | First 5 years | First quarter | Second quarter | Third quarter | Final quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k |
| average | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k |
| lowest | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k |
| highest | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k | $55k |
Closest calls (survived, but barely)
| Retired in | Lowest point | Share of starting balance | At age |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $26k | 3.5% | 91 |
| 1958 | $50k | 6.7% | 99 |
| 2001 | $53k | 7.0% | 90 |
| 1999 | $84k | 11.2% | 92 |
| 1998 | $189k | 25.2% | 93 |
| 2002 | $239k | 31.8% | 86 |
| 2007 | $305k | 40.7% | 83 |
| 2006 | $346k | 46.2% | 82 |
| Retired in↑ | Outcome | Money lasts to | Lowest point | Tax paid | At the end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957 | runs out | 93 | $0 at 93 | $186k | $0 |
| 1958 | lasts | 100+ | $50k at 99 | $216k | $50k |
| 1959 | runs out | 95 | $0 at 95 | $189k | $0 |
| 1960 | runs out | 95 | $0 at 95 | $189k | $0 |
| 1961 | runs out | 96 | $0 at 96 | $189k | $0 |
| 1962 | runs out | 87 | $0 at 87 | $150k | $0 |
| 1963 | runs out | 90 | $0 at 90 | $160k | $0 |
| 1964 | runs out | 87 | $0 at 87 | $143k | $0 |
| 1965 | runs out | 84 | $0 at 84 | $126k | $0 |
| 1966 | runs out | 84 | $0 at 84 | $122k | $0 |
| 1967 | runs out | 87 | $0 at 87 | $134k | $0 |
| 1968 | runs out | 85 | $0 at 85 | $125k | $0 |
| 1969 | runs out | 84 | $0 at 84 | $117k | $0 |
| 1970 | runs out | 88 | $0 at 88 | $128k | $0 |
| 1971 | runs out | 87 | $0 at 87 | $123k | $0 |
| 1972 | runs out | 87 | $0 at 87 | $118k | $0 |
| 1973 | runs out | 84 | $0 at 84 | $106k | $0 |
| 1974 | runs out | 95 | $0 at 95 | $144k | $0 |
| 1975 | lasts | 100+ | $525k at 72 | $323k | $1.27M |
| 1976 | lasts | 100+ | $506k at 71 | $301k | $1.20M |
| 1977 | lasts | 100+ | $481k at 70 | $271k | $979k |
| 1978 | lasts | 100+ | $541k at 69 | $346k | $1.42M |
| 1979 | lasts | 100+ | $541k at 68 | $353k | $1.51M |
| 1980 | lasts | 100+ | $528k at 67 | $342k | $1.53M |
| 1981 | lasts | 100+ | $509k at 66 | $343k | $1.37M |
| 1982 | lasts | 100+ | $623k at 65 | $557k | $2.71M |
| 1983 | lasts | 100+ | $758k at 65 | $501k | $2.44M |
| 1984 | lasts | 100+ | $676k at 65 | $421k | $1.79M |
| 1985 | lasts | 100+ | $779k at 65 | $446k | $2.09M |
| 1986 | lasts | 100+ | $673k at 69 | $341k | $1.39M |
| 1987 | lasts | 100+ | $643k at 68 | $334k | $1.23M |
| 1988 | lasts | 100+ | $694k at 67 | $370k | $1.31M |
| 1989 | lasts | 100+ | $687k at 66 | $375k | $1.36M |
| 1990 | lasts | 100+ | $626k at 65 | $341k | $1.16M |
| 1991 | lasts | 100+ | $736k at 65 | $437k | $1.96M |
| 1992 | record ends, funded | 99 | $740k at 65 | $400k | $1.63M |
| 1993 | record ends, funded | 98 | $743k at 65 | $384k | $1.51M |
| 1994 | record ends, funded | 97 | $701k at 66 | $318k | $982k |
| 1995 | record ends, funded | 96 | $739k at 65 | $341k | $1.26M |
| 1996 | record ends, funded | 95 | $632k at 92 | $286k | $754k |
| 1997 | record ends, funded | 94 | $390k at 91 | $229k | $461k |
| 1998 | record ends, funded | 93 | $189k at 93 | $183k | $191k |
| 1999 | record ends, funded | 92 | $84k at 92 | $163k | $84k |
| 2000 | record ends, funded | 91 | $26k at 91 | $149k | $26k |
| 2001 | record ends, funded | 90 | $53k at 90 | $149k | $53k |
| 2002 | record ends, funded | 89 | $239k at 86 | $175k | $250k |
| 2003 | record ends, funded | 88 | $487k at 85 | $225k | $547k |
| 2004 | record ends, funded | 87 | $425k at 84 | $207k | $464k |
| 2005 | record ends, funded | 86 | $416k at 83 | $200k | $451k |
| 2006 | record ends, funded | 85 | $346k at 82 | $179k | $363k |
| 2007 | record ends, funded | 84 | $305k at 83 | $166k | $319k |
| 2008 | record ends, funded | 83 | $378k at 80 | $175k | $396k |
| 2009 | record ends, funded | 82 | $699k at 79 | $162k | $842k |
| 2010 | record ends, funded | 81 | $629k at 78 | $152k | $745k |
| 2011 | record ends, funded | 80 | $607k at 77 | $142k | $714k |
| 2012 | record ends, funded | 79 | $676k at 76 | $131k | $810k |
| 2013 | record ends, funded | 78 | $668k at 75 | $120k | $799k |
| 2014 | record ends, funded | 77 | $624k at 74 | $110k | $737k |
| 2015 | record ends, funded | 76 | $562k at 73 | $100k | $650k |
| 2016 | record ends, funded | 75 | $600k at 72 | $90k | $703k |
| 2017 | record ends, funded | 74 | $589k at 71 | $79k | $687k |
| 2018 | record ends, funded | 73 | $589k at 70 | $69k | $686k |
| 2019 | record ends, funded | 72 | $662k at 69 | $57k | $788k |
| 2020 | record ends, funded | 71 | $611k at 68 | $48k | $717k |
| 2021 | record ends, funded | 70 | $600k at 67 | $39k | $703k |
| 2022 | record ends, funded | 69 | $580k at 66 | $29k | $682k |
| 2023 | record ends, funded | 68 | $712k at 65 | $16k | $888k |
| 2024 | record ends, funded | 67 | $745k at 65 | $6k | $867k |
| 2025 | record ends, funded | 66 | $715k at 65 | $2k | $792k |
All figures in today's dollars. "Record ends, funded" means the retirement started recently enough that history has not finished playing it out; it counts as surviving so far.
Will your money last?
Most retirement tools answer with an average: assume the market returns 6% a year and project one smooth line. Real retirements get a specific sequence of years, and the order matters more than the mean.
Retirement Replay answers the question the way researchers do: it takes your numbers and runs the retirement through every start year in the historical record, then shows you the whole distribution. The verdict at the top is a count, how many recorded histories your plan survived, and the chart keeps every strand so you can see which ones it lost. The mortality view folds in the other half of the question, how long you are likely to be around to need it, using Statistics Canada life tables, so the chart can tell the difference between money that fails at 85 and money that fails at 103.
What the simulator gets right about Canada
The US tools that pioneered this method treat withdrawals as tax-free and pin government benefits on as a single flat number. This one is built on Canadian rules from the ground up.
After-tax spending
When a year needs $60,000 from an RRSP, the simulator solves for the larger gross withdrawal that nets it, using 2026 federal and provincial brackets in all 13 provinces and territories.
RRIF minimums
Forced withdrawals from age 72 whether you need them or not, with anything beyond your spending reinvested outside the RRIF.
CPP timing
Start anywhere from 60 to 70 with the real reduction and deferral factors applied, carried in today's dollars the way an indexed benefit behaves.
OAS, prorated and clawed back
Residency years set the entitlement, and the recovery tax claws it back as net income passes $95,323.
Capital gains on the way out
Selling non-registered investments realizes gains against a tracked cost base at the 50% inclusion rate, so a low-cost-base portfolio pays its real tax bill.
The GIS, earned automatically
Low income with OAS in pay draws the Guaranteed Income Supplement, and because TFSA withdrawals do not count toward it, a TFSA-funded retirement can keep more of it. The reason a drawdown order matters for modest portfolios.
Pensions with or without raises
A workplace pension can be indexed or fixed. Set it to no cost-of-living raises and each history erodes it along that decade's own inflation, which is what private-sector pensions actually do.
GICs as a first-class asset
Posted 5-year GIC rates sit in the allocation mixer beside stocks and bonds. Canadian retirees hold them; FIRECalc and cFIREsim have no such asset.
Withdrawal strategies: the 4% rule, VPW and guardrails
Four spending rules run against the same histories, so you can see what each one would have cost you in 1966 and given you in 1982.
Constant dollar
The classic study design: the same real spending every year, no matter what markets do. The strictest test of a plan, and the rule behind the famous 4% finding.
Percentage of portfolio
Spend a fixed share of whatever remains. It can never run out, but income swings with the market, and a bad decade means lean years.
VPW
The variable percentage method from the Bogleheads and finiki wikis: each year amortizes the portfolio over your remaining years, like a mortgage in reverse, so the percentage climbs with age and the portfolio is designed to be fully spent by the horizon.
Guardrails
The Guyton-Klinger approach: hold spending steady until your withdrawal rate drifts outside a band, then cut or raise by a step you choose. The 1966 histories show the cuts; the 1982 boom shows the raises.
Test your safe withdrawal rate
The famous 4% rule comes from this exact method applied to US data: the highest initial withdrawal rate that survived every American 30-year retirement. Whether 4% holds in Canada, with Canadian returns, Canadian inflation, and a tax bill the US studies ignored, is what this tool lets you check for your own numbers. The results panel keeps a live answer: the highest spending where every history holds, and the highest where 19 of 20 hold. Pin a scenario and lay a second plan over the first to see what an extra $5,000 a year, or retiring two years later, buys you.
Sequence of returns
Two retirements can earn the same average return and end completely differently, because withdrawals turn early losses into permanent ones. That asymmetry is sequence-of-returns risk, and it is the single biggest reason outcomes vary. Switch to the through-history view and the worst sequences stand out on sight: strands born in the mid-1960s sinking while their neighbours climb. Click any strand and that retirement replays month by month, so you can watch inflation eat a 1970s GIC ladder or the 2009 rebound rescue a 2008 start.
Who this is for
Almost retired
Anyone within ten years of the date who wants to pressure-test a number before living on it, with taxes and benefits already in the math.
The FIRE crowd
Planners who have outgrown US-data calculators and want the RRSP, TFSA, and clawback reality inside the safe-withdrawal question.
Advisors and DIYers
A second opinion on a drawdown plan, independent of product sales, with the work shown for every single history.
And the kind of person who will spend an hour dragging a spending handle to find exactly where 1966 stops breaking the plan, which, if you have read this far, may be you.
How this differs from our Retirement Calculator
The Retirement Calculator answers the saving question: how much will I have by 65, given what I put away and how it grows. Retirement Replay answers the spending question: once I stop working, does the money survive to 95 or 100 through the real world's worst decades. Use the calculator to build the pile, then bring the pile here and find out what it can fund.
Questions Canadians ask
Is there a Canadian version of FIRECalc or cFIREsim?
This is it. FIRECalc, cFIREsim, and ficalc all run historical-cycle simulations on US data with no taxes. Retirement Replay applies the same research method to Canadian market history and layers on the parts those tools do not model: CPP and OAS timing, RRIF minimums, the OAS clawback, capital gains on non-registered accounts, and provincial tax.
What is a safe withdrawal rate in Canada?
There is no single number, and anyone quoting one without knowing your account mix and province is rounding. The answer depends on your asset allocation, your accounts (because taxes change the arithmetic), and how long the money needs to last. The simulator computes it live for your exact situation, as the highest spending level that survived every historical start year.
How long will my money last in retirement?
It depends less on the average market and more on which market you retire into, which nobody gets to choose. The cohort table above answers the question one history at a time: for every start year since the 1950s, the age your money lasts to, its lowest point along the way, the tax it paid, and what was left at the end.
Can we run this as a couple?
Yes. A couple runs with two CPP and two OAS timelines, each with its own start age and amount, and the simulation carries the household past the first death: survivor benefits apply, the deceased's OAS ends, and household spending steps down to the share you choose. The mortality view draws on both life expectancies.
Does it handle the GIS and lower-income retirements?
Yes. When income is low and OAS is in pay, the simulator adds the Guaranteed Income Supplement each year, on the published quarterly rates. Because TFSA withdrawals do not count as income for the GIS, a household that draws from its TFSA can keep more of it, and you can watch the drawdown order change that in the cohort table.
My pension has no cost-of-living raises. Does that matter?
A great deal, and the simulator models it. A pension set to no raises holds its dollar amount while prices climb, so each history erodes it along that decade's own inflation. In the high-inflation starts of the 1960s and 70s, the same pension is worth far less by your eighties than an indexed one.
Is my information stored anywhere?
No. The whole simulation runs inside your browser. Nothing you type is sent to a server, stored, or shared.
Historical results are not a guarantee of future ones. Retirement Replay is an educational simulation, not financial advice.